The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose modestly last week, suggesting the labour market remains broadly stable even as geopolitical tensions and rising costs pose emerging risks to economic momentum.
Data released by the US Department of Labor showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended April 18.
The figure came in slightly above economists’ expectations of 210,000, according to a Reuters poll.
Labour market holds steady for now
Despite the uptick, claims remain at relatively low levels, indicating that layoffs are still limited.
There are no clear signs yet that the ongoing conflict involving Iran has triggered widespread job cuts, even as it disrupts global trade routes and pushes up commodity prices.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping corridor, has been effectively shut since late February, contributing to higher costs for oil, fertilizers, petrochemicals and aluminium.
Economists caution that a prolonged disruption could eventually filter through to hiring and business investment decisions.
So far, however, the labour market appears anchored by what analysts describe as a “low hire-low fire” dynamic, where employers are reluctant to both expand and reduce headcount significantly.
Hiring momentum shows signs of cooling
Continuing claims, which reflect the number of people receiving benefits after their initial week, rose by 12,000 to 1.821 million in the week ended April 11.
This measure is often seen as a proxy for hiring conditions, with increases suggesting it is taking longer for unemployed workers to find new jobs.
While continuing claims remain below last year’s peaks, part of the decline could be attributed to workers exhausting their benefits, which are typically capped at 26 weeks in most states.
The data also does not fully capture younger workers or those with limited employment histories, who are facing a more challenging job market.
Recent data from the New York Federal Reserve reinforces this trend, showing that the expected likelihood of switching employers has fallen to its lowest level in around five years.
Economic uncertainty clouds outlook
The claims figures coincide with the period used to compile the government’s monthly employment report.
Payrolls rose by 178,000 jobs in March, following a decline of 133,000 in February, highlighting the uneven nature of job growth. Employment has contracted in six of the past 15 months.
Broader policy and geopolitical developments continue to shape the outlook.
President Donald Trump recently extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, though tensions remain elevated, with a US Navy blockade of Iranian ports still in place.
Economists warn that higher energy prices and trade disruptions linked to the conflict could weigh on business confidence and hiring in the months ahead, even as the labour market for now remains relatively resilient.
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